Market Direction

The psychology of the market has shifted, highlighted by The Stock Bandit in a post titled When Bulls become Sellers. Its an interesting post about the current market conditions and how traders change direction in uncertain times.

"Those same bulls are now much more likely to become sellers into bounces. Will they sell at the first sign of higher prices? Yes, some will. Will some of them try to endure this pullback but eventually capitulate and flee for the safety of cash? Of course."

Motivations and confidence in the market have altered. The bulls can't afford to be bullish all the time and a safer direction has to be taken when conditions around you change. Looking at the chart I posted yesterday, corrections occur and until the bull becomes a bear these conditions need to be traded as such.

Beginning of a correction, the rumblings of a bear market or a mere blip in a bull market are all possibilities. Most views that I have read point towards the bull returning and fear of the bear seems to be at a minimum.

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Chart Watch 2007-03-04

Along with the All Ordinaries, the handful of stocks I have been following have taken a hit this past week. I agree with MATT O'SULLIVAN - SMH article. I'm anticipating further declines but still old a bullish view overall. The market needs to have a shake out to keep investors and share prices inline. With that view CFX, CQT and IDL are being stopped out. We will continue to follow CHC, as it has been the standout performer of the list, and well above it's stop loss.

Below are two charts that support the view that the fall last week looks healthy, and that if it is a correction it has further to fall.





So how are other traders handling the current conditions? Right now I'm cashed up, looking for good buying conditions. I've found this correction profitable so far, having made 2 three day trades with IDL and EVE. I bought both for the same reason that they had both been sold off too much. Other traders took the same view with both stocks rebounding strongly the past couple of days.

Finding strong up trending stocks will be tough, but we'll run the scans early this week and see what is returned.

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