Chart Watch 2009-02-25 - XAO, BHP

XAO - All Ordinaries



All ordinaries closed below 3300, and below low from 23/01/2009, to finish the day at 3281.5 (-0.7%). Could see a retest of the low of 3201.5 and creating a new down-swing. March 2003 low of 2700 in reach from here.

XAO started the day positive on open, and continued to slide throughout the day. Nikkei 225 finished the day up 2.65%.

Looking to the DOW now to see if it can follow through with the +236.16 (+3.32%) gain yesterday.

BHP - BHP Billiton



BHP closed on the short term trend line today, finishing at $29.01 (-1.0%). Stochastic showing oversold

WOW - Woolworths



Woolworths closed above $28.00 for the first time this year. I'm looking to trade this short term with a target of $29, and stop $27.50 (risk $0.50, gain $1.00). Against the trend of XAO, but WOW has 50MA pointing up and closed about 200EMA.

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Chart Watch 2009-02-23

XAO - All Ordinaries



A fall of 1.5% to 3,304.10 keeps the index above the years end-of-day low of 3000.2 (23/01/2009) helped by a strong close. The index was down over 80 points during the day. Big miners were down including ex-dividend BHP down $1.20 to $29.31 and RIO down $3.42 to $46.87.

RIO - Rio Tinto





RIO closed below support (although not on strong volume) indicating a test of the lower trend channel line (or 50MA).

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Chart Watch 2008-12-09

Sounding like a broken record but another good lead from the US (DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all up over 3%), but this time the ASX could not manage to follow through. The S&P 500 looks to be testing the 50MA, so the next couple of days should be interesting, especially to see if the market can shake off any further bad news.

Bad news seems to be plentiful for the Australian Market
* Commonwealth Bank to sell $1.25bn in 3 and 5 year bonds (CBA down 8%)
* Wespac raises $2.5bn capital
* Pacific Brands cut dividend forecast by about 65 per cent
* Panel of economists give Australia a 40% chance of entering a recession

Good news included
* Resources up after higher commodity prices (with BHP Billiton rising 4.51 per cent to $28.45, and Rio Tinto lifting 3.95 per cent to $33.35, while fellow iron ore miner, Fortescue Metals Group, rode the wave, climbing 7.33 per cent to $2.34)
* Three sources indicate potential Chinese suitors for Oz Minerals (OZL)

Trends*
Long Term - Down
Intermediate - Down
Short Term - Up

*10MA, 30EMA and 200MA used to determine trends

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Chart Watch 2008-12-08

XJO - ASX 200



After a good lead from the US (DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all up over 3%) shaking off some negative job data, our market has followed through with a 4% gain, also shaking off the ANZ job ad numbers. XJO ended the day at 3631.60 (up 4.06%).

Some other of the negative news out today which the market seemed to ignore include;
BHP may require to cut iron ore production
RIO could cut thousands of jobs
Harvey Norman (HVN) warned some of its stores could close

Trends*
Long Term - Down
Intermediate - Down
Short Term - Up

*10MA, 30EMA and 200MA used to determine trends

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Chart Watch 2008-11-30

XJO - ASX 200



XAO - ALL ORDINARIES



The XJO closed 3742, above the low of the 28/11 of 3724, but still below the 50% retracement of 3777. The story of the XAO with a close of 3672 shows a similar story but below the 28/11 low of 3693 and 3760 50% retracement.

The market will test this area, probably on Monday after a strong close of the week for the DOW and S&P 500 (NASDAQ flat). Respect of this level(s) will indicate the continuation of the down swing.

BHP - BHP Billiton



A great week for the bug Aussie, approaching the $31.00 mark with volume. Still in a short term, medium term and long term until proven otherwise.

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BHP Inner Strength

Great read for people interested in BHP. BHP is one of my favorites for my long term portfolio.

"As a result of the board’s decision, BHP is going to emerge from this episode in the commodity cycle in a position even stronger than the one in which it went into the bullmarket in commodities."

"BHP, with minimal debt and strong cash flows, will be able to absorb whatever pain the downturn generates"

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RIO Offer no longer in the best interest of shareholders

The bids off for RIO, according to the latest release by BHP. Citing worsening market conditions and divesting demands from the European regulators, the $US66 billion ($A104 billion) bid has been pulled sending RIO price down 37% in early London trade.

Marius Kloppers, BHP Billiton’s CEO, said:

“We have previously said that similar cultures and the overlap of key assets and
infrastructure make this a compelling combination. Recent global events and associated falls in commodity prices have, however, altered risk dimensions. BHP Billiton is very focused on balance sheet strength. Accordingly, the greater debt exposure of the combination plus the difficulty of divesting assets have increased the risks to shareholder value to an unacceptable level.“

In a statement release the same day, BHP has also approved a $US4.8 billion ($A7.35 billion) investment to expand its iron ore operations in the Pilbara by 32 per cent to 205 million tonnes per annum. With substantial uncertainty in the short term outlook of iron Ore, this is confidence boost to the long term view held by BHP.

Speculation has commenced on many forums relating to the direction BHP will take from here. Included are; Wait for RIO to continue to fall and initiate a new offer at a cheaper price, purchase other mid-tier producers or near term producers, Make a play for oil producer WPL and/or make a play for iron ore producer FMG.

More likely short term initiatives may include share buy back, or a new direction to sit on cash until the financial turmoil eases.

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