Chart Watch 2009-02-25 - XAO, BHP

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

XAO - All Ordinaries



All ordinaries closed below 3300, and below low from 23/01/2009, to finish the day at 3281.5 (-0.7%). Could see a retest of the low of 3201.5 and creating a new down-swing. March 2003 low of 2700 in reach from here.

XAO started the day positive on open, and continued to slide throughout the day. Nikkei 225 finished the day up 2.65%.

Looking to the DOW now to see if it can follow through with the +236.16 (+3.32%) gain yesterday.

BHP - BHP Billiton



BHP closed on the short term trend line today, finishing at $29.01 (-1.0%). Stochastic showing oversold

WOW - Woolworths



Woolworths closed above $28.00 for the first time this year. I'm looking to trade this short term with a target of $29, and stop $27.50 (risk $0.50, gain $1.00). Against the trend of XAO, but WOW has 50MA pointing up and closed about 200EMA.

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Personal Attribute and Strategy

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

What every trader strives for is a low-risk, high-reward system that consistently produces results. Fundamental and Technical analysis are the two main schools of thought in the financial markets that will allow a trader to achieve this. Within these are vast range of systems and techniques that a can be utilized.

A selection Fundamental Analysis styles include Value, Contrarian and Growth.

A selection Technical Analysis styles include swing, trend and pattern trading.

Determining what style and strategy one uses depend on different factors of the trader/investor. Everyone will have their own strengths and weaknesses and these traits need to be consider when developing your trading plan. The following are a quick outline of my trading strengths, weaknesses and circumstance that helped direct me to the strategy I am trying to implement.

1. I cannot handle long-tem investing. I don’t have the patience to wait months for results, read hundreds of reports and believe someone else’s fundamental analysis. I also haven’t found a fundamental analysis technique that someone can write down their steps for me to learn and understand.

2. Unfortunately I am one of those people that want to understand why something works. It’s not enough for me to accept that something does work. I think this is why I’m a computer programmer by trade. This leads to me over analyzing a complex system, and trying to delve deeper into its workings. These then leads me to question parts of the system.

3. Working all day requires me to use and end of day system. Although I do have time throughout the day to monitor my trades and enter/exit when required, my eyes cannot be glued to the screen. I utilize Quote Tracker’s alerts feature to let me know when pre-determined levels are reached.

Conclusion
1. To ensure I stay focused to the the trade plan the system must be short to medium term
2. System should be based around technical analysis
3. System must be simple enough for me to understand why it works
4. Utilize minimal indicators
5. Allow optional intra-day entry/exit or end-of-fay entry/exit without requiring focus on ticker throughout day

Has anyone else analyzed their personal attributes to see if they match their trading strategy?

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Chart Watch 2009-02-23

Monday, February 23, 2009

XAO - All Ordinaries



A fall of 1.5% to 3,304.10 keeps the index above the years end-of-day low of 3000.2 (23/01/2009) helped by a strong close. The index was down over 80 points during the day. Big miners were down including ex-dividend BHP down $1.20 to $29.31 and RIO down $3.42 to $46.87.

RIO - Rio Tinto





RIO closed below support (although not on strong volume) indicating a test of the lower trend channel line (or 50MA).

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Chart Watch 2009-02-22

Sunday, February 22, 2009

XAO - All Ordinaries



Not much changed from last Tuesday. Closed on or just below the short term support line. DOW closed Friday down 100.28 (-1.34%), breaching a 6-year low.

Latest news from Business Speculator indicate a week for the bears "With indexes at multi-year lows, the focus will be on battered banks Citigroup and Bank of America, two of the cheapest stocks on the Dow, after a top US senator on Friday said short-term nationalisation for some banks was possible."

CBA - Commonwealth Bank



With banks back in focus in the US next week, watch CBA in our market. The breakout opening price provided support, along with the 50MA. Friday's close was a NR7.


WES - Wesfarmers



Wesfarmers closed above its 50MA for the second time this year, also the second time since August 2008 just after its decline with the rest of the market began. One thing extra to note about this move is the increase in volume. Trend could be turning (not yet though), so I'll keep checking in on this one over the coming weeks.

One chart template I use to indicate a change in trend is the Guppy MMA as displayed below for WES. WES still has a way to turn around the short term moving averages to move above the long term.

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