Chart Watch 2009-03-17

XAO - All Ordinaries 
 
The All Ordinaries again closed under 3300, the market has clearly met resistance at the January low.  Stochastics, RSI(2) and CCI(14) all showing oversold.  A quick scan of the ASX 20 stocks will confirm that most stock individually are displaying the same oversold signs.  The medium term trend line was also respected.  The market may be headed to retest lows if it cannot move through this level of resistance.   Mondays candle also formed a Narrow Range 7 bar (NR7).

 
IMF – IMF Australia

  As highlighted in Chart Watch 2009-03-09, IMF Australia was setting up for a potential wedge/triangle trade.  Volume higher than the 15 day moving average.  

Quick Trends

Symbol	Index	Short Term (10MA)	Medium Term (50MA)	Long Term (200EMA)
XAO	All Ordinaries	Neutral	Down	Down
XTL	ASX (20)	Neutral	Down	Down
XMD	Midcap (50)	Neutral	Down	Down
XSO	Small Ordinaries	Neutral	Neutral	Down
XMM	Metals & Mining	Up	Up	Down

Read more...

Chart Watch 2009-03-14

XAO - All Ordinaries
 
The week started off bad for the index, but turned out to be one of the better weeks to be long, closing up around 6% for the week. 

The chart above shows that the short term trend line was broken.
The medium term trend line will be tested this week.
Resistance will be tested this week.

Although the market finished up 3.3% of Friday, the market is showing overbought on the stochastic and  RSI(2).

Below is a Guppy MMA chart of the All Ordinaries and as it shows, the market is still fixed in its down trend, and the short term averages, although are compressing, have not penetrated the long term.

 
WES – Wesfarmers

Wesfarmers broke short term resistance.  Oversold on a lot of indicators so may see some consolidation. 

Quick Trends

Symbol	Index	Short Term (10MA)	Medium Term (50MA)	Long Term (200EMA)
XAO	All Ordinaries	Neutral	Down	Down
XTL	ASX (20)	Neutral	Down	Down
XMD	Midcap (50)	Down	Down	Down
XSO	Small Ordinaries	Down	Neutral	Down
XMM	Metals & Mining	Up	Up	Down

Read more...

Chart Watch 2009-03-09

XAO - All Ordinaries

The All Ordinaries closed at 3143.2 (+0.7%) today after again testing below 3100.  Strength again was shown below this level and the market rallied from 3090.8, finally closing on its high.

The biggest fall recorded in the Australian job ads survey since 1999 was release today with a huge 10.4% fall in February.  The

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maybe required to reduce interest rates further next month to combat the further signs of decline in the Australian economy.

TLS – Telstra
Telstra closed –4.3% to $3.14.  All gains from the passed 2 days trading were wiped out.

IMF – IMF

IMF added to the watch list.  A pennant may be forming.  This is usually a continuation pattern when there is a large movement in a stock.  A consolidation period forms the ‘pennant’, later followed by a breakout in the same direction as the initial large movement.  Volume is important in these patterns, and is well below the 15day moving average.  Waiting for a break  of the upper trend line with an increase in volume.

Quick Trends

Symbol	Short Term (10MA)	Medium Term (50MA)	Long Term (200EMA)
XAO	Down	Neutral	Down
XDJ	Down	Down	Down
XEJ	Up	Neutral	Down
XFJ	Down	Down	Down
XHJ	Down	Neutral	Down
XIJ	Up	Up	Down
XMJ	Neutral	Neutral	Down
XTJ	Down	Down	Down
XUJ	Down	Down	Down

Read more...

Chart Watch 2009-03-09

 

 

 

XAO - All Ordinaries
Some intraday action today for the All Ordinaries with a low of 3052.5, finally closing up 10 points to 3121.7 (0.3%).

The big miners lifted the index with BHP up 5.31% and RIO Tinto up $3.93%

FMG and RIO both sought to strengthen their balance sheet today. F

ortescue Metals Group (FMG) gained 1.60 per cent to $2.54, and has

agreed to sell a further $86.8 million of its shares to Hunan Valin Iron and Steel Group Company Ltd.  RIO reached an agreement to sell the Jacobs Ranch coal mine in the United States for $US761 million ($A1.19 billion) as part of an asset sale program to reduce debt.

PAG - PrimeAg

 

PrimeAg is fast approaching resistance.

Quick Trends

Symbol	Short Term (10MA)	Medium Term (50MA)	Long Term (200EMA)
XAO	Down	Neutral	Down
XDJ	Down	Down	Down
XEJ	Up	Neutral	Down
XFJ	Down	Down	Down
XHJ	Down	Down	Down
XIJ	Up	Up	Down
XMJ	Down	Down	Down
XTJ	Down	Down	Down
XUJ	Down	Down	Down

Read more...

Chart Watch 2009-03-05

XAO - All Ordinaries 

The DOW closed up overnight 149.82 points to 6875.84 (2.23%) after 5 days of selling.  The Dow failed to break back through 7000. 

The All Ordinaries has  had an un-eventful day failing to regain the lose of the previous trading day.  The XAO closed up 21.2 points to finish at 3147.1 (0.68%).   I was looking for the high of the previous day (3171.4) to be taken out and stick, but our market was a bit more cautious than the DOW and the high for today of 3177.1 failed to hold.

XAO still showing oversold on CCI(14) and Stochastic. 
Shorter term oversold Williams %R (3) and RSI(2) are not.

Today’s headlines
Chinese 8% Growth Target
Housing Sector ‘May have turned corner’
Minemakers launches takeover of Bonaparte

XJI - ASX Information Technology
One of the stronger sectors on the ASX is the XIJ or Information Technology sector.  Support looks to be in at 399 

PAG – PrimeAg
Support now become resistance on this agriculture stock.  3 times the stock price had tested the $1.05 level.  Above average volume today to close a further 5% lower at $0.97

Quick Trends

Symbol	Short Term (10MA)	Medium Term (50MA)	Long Term (200EMA)
XAO	Down	Neutral	Down
XDJ	Down	Neutral	Down
XEJ	Neutral	Neutral	Down
XFJ	Down	Down	Down
XHJ	Down	Up	Down
XIJ	Down	Up	Down
XMJ	Down	Neutral	Down
XTJ	Down	Neutral	Down
XUJ	Down	Down	Down

Read more...

Chart Watch 2009-03-04

XAO - All Ordinaries

The first decline in Australia's GDP for eight years was reported today with a fall 0.5 per cent in the December quarter.  The All Ordinaries followed to close at a five and a half year low to 3,125.90 or 1.43%.

Fears of recession took hold of traders with the next 6 months looking a lot gloomy, and all sectors took a hit. 

The world markets are anticipating another Chinese stimulus package to be announced that could help limit the length and depth of the recession in the

industrialized world.

LST – Lionsel
LST came up on my TAZ scan yesterday and today a confirmation candle formed.  Volume is too light for me to take a position, and like all bullish trades, against the market timing.

1. Pulled back to Traders Action Zone

2. Respected support and 50% Fib
3. ADX above 25 indicating start of a trend

4. First pullback

Quick Trends

Symbol	Short Term (10MA)	Medium Term (50MA)	Long Term (200EMA)
XAO	Down	Neutral	Down
XDJ	Down	Down	Down
XEJ	Down	Neutral	Down
XFJ	Down	Down	Down
XHJ	Down	Up	Neutral
XIJ	Down	Up	Down
XMJ	Down	Neutral	Down
XTJ	Down	Down	Down
XUJ	Down	Down	Down

Read more...

Chart Watch 2009-03-03

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

XAO - All Ordinaries

 

The DOW slid to 12-year lows overnight to its first close below 7,000 since May 1997.  The All Ordinaries closed at down 32.4 points to 3171.4 , the lowest level since December 2003.

Two-thirds of the initial loss were regained after the the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates on hold at 3.25 per cent, a 45-year low.  Economists are predicting the RBA is leaving itself available to provide further cuts in the near future.

  

AMP - AMP

Anyone interested in catching a knife?

Quick Trends

Symbol	Short Term (10MA)	Medium Term (50MA)	Long Term (200EMA)
XAO	Down	Neutral	Down
XDJ	Down	Down	Down
XEJ	Down	Neutral	Down
XFJ	Down	Down	Down
XHJ	Down	Up	Down
XIJ	Down	Up	Down
XMJ	Down	Neutral	Down
XTJ	Down	Neutral	Down
XUJ	Down	Down	Down

Read more...

Chart Watch 2009-03-02

 

 

XAO - All Ordinaries
The All Ordinaries closed down 96.4 points to

3200.5 (-2.92%), on news US the economy shrank at its fastest pace in more than a quarter of a century. 

The low for the day was 3190.7, the lowest level in 5 years.

The RBA board will hold its monthly meeting tomorrow, with some predictions of another 100 basis points cut.  Wednesday figures will be released showing if the Australia economy shrank or not in recent months.  The government is hoping the stimulus package in December and another looming in March will prevent a large contraction.

Read more...

Chart Watch 2009-03-01

XAO - All Ordinaries



Three trading days in a row closing below 3300, with multiple attempts to break through. All trends on the XAO still pointing down.

WOW - Woolworths



Wow indeed. Late last week I highlighted Woolworths ... made the critical mistake of not checking the economic calendar. Earnings come out below expectations and gapped down well under my stop loss (open $26.9). Take the hit on this one.

JBH - JB Hi-Fi



JBH has created a throwback patten. "A throwback is simply a return to the point of breakout on an upward break ... If the breakout is true, price should hit and then bounce off the point of breakout and then surpass the point at which momentum waned and price turned".

Some rules for trading the throwback

1. Return to point support, trend line or pivot point

2. Oversold on your favorite indicator

3. Pullback to a major moving average, such as the 30, 50, or 200 day.

So how as JBH played out so far:
* Resistance was $10.30 (5/11/2008) and $10.26 (7/01/2009)
* 17% gain on 10/02/2009 closing at $10.80 on extremely high volume
* Pullback to support closing $10.29 and just below 200EMA on 25/02/2009
* RSI(2) was oversold on pullback to support (25/02/2009)
* Stock pulled back into the traders action zone

See how this stock plays out. Stop loss ideas include $10.26 (support) or take low from swing at $10.05.

From swing-trade-stocks "Forget buying breakouts. Step away from the crowd. Wait for the breakout buyers to get scared and sell. This sets up the pullback that you can get into with low risk, high odds, and a profitable reward."

Read more...

Chart Watch 2009-02-25 - XAO, BHP

XAO - All Ordinaries



All ordinaries closed below 3300, and below low from 23/01/2009, to finish the day at 3281.5 (-0.7%). Could see a retest of the low of 3201.5 and creating a new down-swing. March 2003 low of 2700 in reach from here.

XAO started the day positive on open, and continued to slide throughout the day. Nikkei 225 finished the day up 2.65%.

Looking to the DOW now to see if it can follow through with the +236.16 (+3.32%) gain yesterday.

BHP - BHP Billiton



BHP closed on the short term trend line today, finishing at $29.01 (-1.0%). Stochastic showing oversold

WOW - Woolworths



Woolworths closed above $28.00 for the first time this year. I'm looking to trade this short term with a target of $29, and stop $27.50 (risk $0.50, gain $1.00). Against the trend of XAO, but WOW has 50MA pointing up and closed about 200EMA.

Read more...

Personal Attribute and Strategy

What every trader strives for is a low-risk, high-reward system that consistently produces results. Fundamental and Technical analysis are the two main schools of thought in the financial markets that will allow a trader to achieve this. Within these are vast range of systems and techniques that a can be utilized.

A selection Fundamental Analysis styles include Value, Contrarian and Growth.

A selection Technical Analysis styles include swing, trend and pattern trading.

Determining what style and strategy one uses depend on different factors of the trader/investor. Everyone will have their own strengths and weaknesses and these traits need to be consider when developing your trading plan. The following are a quick outline of my trading strengths, weaknesses and circumstance that helped direct me to the strategy I am trying to implement.

1. I cannot handle long-tem investing. I don’t have the patience to wait months for results, read hundreds of reports and believe someone else’s fundamental analysis. I also haven’t found a fundamental analysis technique that someone can write down their steps for me to learn and understand.

2. Unfortunately I am one of those people that want to understand why something works. It’s not enough for me to accept that something does work. I think this is why I’m a computer programmer by trade. This leads to me over analyzing a complex system, and trying to delve deeper into its workings. These then leads me to question parts of the system.

3. Working all day requires me to use and end of day system. Although I do have time throughout the day to monitor my trades and enter/exit when required, my eyes cannot be glued to the screen. I utilize Quote Tracker’s alerts feature to let me know when pre-determined levels are reached.

Conclusion
1. To ensure I stay focused to the the trade plan the system must be short to medium term
2. System should be based around technical analysis
3. System must be simple enough for me to understand why it works
4. Utilize minimal indicators
5. Allow optional intra-day entry/exit or end-of-fay entry/exit without requiring focus on ticker throughout day

Has anyone else analyzed their personal attributes to see if they match their trading strategy?

Read more...

Chart Watch 2009-02-23

XAO - All Ordinaries



A fall of 1.5% to 3,304.10 keeps the index above the years end-of-day low of 3000.2 (23/01/2009) helped by a strong close. The index was down over 80 points during the day. Big miners were down including ex-dividend BHP down $1.20 to $29.31 and RIO down $3.42 to $46.87.

RIO - Rio Tinto





RIO closed below support (although not on strong volume) indicating a test of the lower trend channel line (or 50MA).

Read more...

Chart Watch 2009-02-22

XAO - All Ordinaries



Not much changed from last Tuesday. Closed on or just below the short term support line. DOW closed Friday down 100.28 (-1.34%), breaching a 6-year low.

Latest news from Business Speculator indicate a week for the bears "With indexes at multi-year lows, the focus will be on battered banks Citigroup and Bank of America, two of the cheapest stocks on the Dow, after a top US senator on Friday said short-term nationalisation for some banks was possible."

CBA - Commonwealth Bank



With banks back in focus in the US next week, watch CBA in our market. The breakout opening price provided support, along with the 50MA. Friday's close was a NR7.


WES - Wesfarmers



Wesfarmers closed above its 50MA for the second time this year, also the second time since August 2008 just after its decline with the rest of the market began. One thing extra to note about this move is the increase in volume. Trend could be turning (not yet though), so I'll keep checking in on this one over the coming weeks.

One chart template I use to indicate a change in trend is the Guppy MMA as displayed below for WES. WES still has a way to turn around the short term moving averages to move above the long term.

Read more...

Chart Watch 2009-02-17

XAO - All Ordinaries



The All Ordinaries closed at 3,412.200 today, a 49.1 fall or 1.42%. The day started sideways, with a sell off after lunch. Last weeks test of the 50MA failed (3500 level), and indicators showing signs of short term oversold levels. The US markets were closed yesterday.

IRN - INDOPHIL



I added IRN to my watch list today. Breaking 50MA on above average volume (up $0.02 or 7.14%). The stock has a few levels of above resistance. On the watch list for now to see how this one plays out.

ASX



ASX hit resistance with a thud today.

Read more...

Chart Watch 2009-02-11

RIO - RIO Tinto



As indicated in Chart Watch 2009-02-7, RIO Tinto had potential to break through short term resistance. Today RIO had a strong positive candle above this resistance on above average volume. Target $60, but may fall short in the pulse.

Making Lows

A range of stocks are either testing, or made new lows today. Included in this list are AMP, are ANZ and are WES.

AMP


ANZ


WES - Wesfarmers

Read more...

Chart Watch 2009-02-10

XAO - All Ordinaries



With a close +38.30 (+1.12%) yesterday, the All Ordinaries has closed on the November-February trend line. 50MA also resistance at this level with a break targeting 3700.

No lead from wall street over night with the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P 500 closing flat as investor wait for Washington to decide their stimulus package fate, like the Australian.

Read more...

Chart Watch 2009-02-07

RIO - RIO Tinto



Recently broken trend-line dating back to September 2008.
Broken through 50-day moving average
Volume increasing past couple of weeks
Short term support around $36.30

What for RIO to close above $46.93. A close above this could indicate a move up towards resistance of around $60.00

Read more...

Chart Watch 2009-02-06

BRM - Brockman Resources





A recent trade, which I am still holding, is Brockman Resources. Explaining my reasons
1. Mid term the stock as come of a strong base, between October and start of January
2. A strong short term break out occurred on strong volume to a high of $1.17 (16th Jan)
3. Close on 15th and 16th both closed below 50MA
4. Stock pulled back on low volume back to the 38.2% Fib, and into the TAZ
5. GMMA show a the short term averages breaking above the long term.

I bought on the high of the 29th Jan, @ $0.90 with a stop at $0.84.
My target is the 50MA, and I have moved my stop to above break event at $0.95, below the low of the 3rd of February.

Not sure how I'll play this Monday. A lot of volume yesterday all at $1.00. If signs of this stronger buyer/seller at this level leaving I may decide to exit, to try and lock in a good profit. I'll will be watching this one intrad day early next week for an exit sign. I may end up missing an up-trend that is starting, but a profit is a profit in a any, especially a bear, market.

Read more...

Chinese Recovery

After a fall from 6000 down to 1800, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen a long was since August 2008.

Colin Twiggs has chart showing the downward channel on the weekly chart has been broken, and the down-trend is weakening.

XAO Index

Our index as demonstrated below, is yet to break out this downtrend.

Read more...

$42 Billion Stimulus Announced

$42 Billion Stimulus Announced

Most Australians will be focused on the following
"
About 8.7 million workers will get a lump sum tax-free bonus, depending on their annual income.

Those earning up to $80,000 a year will receive $950, those earning between $80,000 and $90,000 will get $650 and those earning between $90,000 and $100,000 get a $300 bonus.

Single-income families who receive the Family Tax Benefit Part B - about 1.5 million families - will get $950 on March 11. It will only be paid to those who were eligible for Family Tax Benefit Part B on February 3.

Those receiving Family Tax Benefit Part A with a child aged between 4 and 18 years will get a $950 back to school bonus.

"

Read more...

Rate Cut Expected

Looking forward to the rate cut later this today . Tips have ranged from 1% up to a high of 1.5%. Michael Pasco discussed the possibility of 1.5% today with Mel and Koshie on Sunrise.

Trading has been slow of late with my work, website freelancing and family commitments ramping up. BRM and TAP are to recent pullbacks that I'm on and both have been a little slow. BRM had a good day yesterday so hoping it will follow through.

Enjoy the rest of the week and lets hope for a substantial rate cut today.

Read more...